000
FZPN03 KNHC 210235
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI OCT 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 13.1N 95.3W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC 
OCT 21 MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 13.3N 98.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 15.5N 102.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT... WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SE AND 120 NM SW 
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA 
FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA INLAND NEAR COAST NEAR 
18.8N 103.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 22.6N 
105.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...NO MORE TCM FCST INFO ==> VERIFY WITH TCM.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
 
.HURRICANE OLAF W OF AREA. FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 138W SE TO S 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 138W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 
23N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED  AND 
180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 23N137W TO 18N134W TO 08N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 24N138W TO 19N137W TO 12N137W 
TO 10N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S W OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE 01N124W TO 01N119W TO 03.4S111W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE 30N131W TO 24N140W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0230 UTC WED OCT 21...

.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
180 NM E QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 138W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N105W TO 12N113W TO 08N124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W.  

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.