000
FZPN03 KNHC 121520
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1630 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 12.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 13.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 14.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM DOLORES NEAR 15.4N 101.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC 
JUL 12 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 
KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...50 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DOLORES NEAR 16.8N 104.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
150 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE 
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM W WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 
101W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DOLORES NEAR 17.8N 107.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...160 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 SW QUADRANT WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 10N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DOLORES NEAR 18.8N 109.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR 
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DOLORES NEAR 19.7N 110.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DOLORES NEAR 20.3N 113.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N125W 1003 MB MOVING NW AT 7 KT. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER TO NEAR 21N124W. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N W OF TROUGH TO 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
16N127W 1003 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM NE 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 KT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 
21N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
17N130W 1002 MB. WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N96W... 
INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
TO 9 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 
14N96.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.  
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.FROM 09N TO 11.5N E OF 90W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO 
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 91W...INCLUDING GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12...

.TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 
NM E AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N125W...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W.  

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 8.5N W OF 81W TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

.WITHIN 90NM-110NM SE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N122W TO 08N126W TO 
05N133W NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...               
TWO MONSOON TROUGH SECTORS ARE NOTED. ONE FROM 09N94W TO 
07N93W...AND THE SECOND ONE FROM 10N129W TO 05N140W. THERE IS NO 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W 
AND 91W. 
 
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.