000
FZPN03 KNHC 152106
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2230 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 17.0N 103.0W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN 15 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM NE 
QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 75 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 17.9N 104.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA 16N TO 
19N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 19.5N 105.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS NEAR 21.0N 106.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CARLOS NEAR 22.0N 
106.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...NO MORE TCM FCST INFO ==> VERIFY WITH TCM.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 02N W OF 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE 
SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S110W TO 01S102W TO 01S98W TO 03.4S90W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 98W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 00N120W TO 02N116W TO 02N101W 
TO 03.4S96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW 
SWELL. 

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC MON JUN 15...

.HURRICANE CARLOS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W 
AND 101W.  

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
ITCZ FROM 08N110W TO 08N120W TO 05N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.