000
FZPN03 KNHC 151548
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 17.0N 102.5W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN 
15 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM NE 
QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 75 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 17.8N 104.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 75 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 19.4N 105.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH 
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT SEAS TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS NEAR 21.2N 106.1W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CARLOS NEAR 22.8N 
106.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S88W TO 01S104W TO 02S120W TO 05N130W TO 
03N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY SE 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 01N103W TO 0.5S120W 
TO 05N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE 
AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S98W TO 02N103W TO 
01.5N120W TO 02N135W TO 03.5N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT 
IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. 

.FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1515 UTC MON JUN 15...

.TROPICAL STORM CARLOS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 14.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. 
 
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N101W TO 07N117W TO 07.5N121W TO 
04N132W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 112W TO 120W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. 

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.