000
FZPN03 KNHC 142221
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2230 UTC SUN JUN 14 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUN 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON JUN 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUN 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOS NEAR 16.4N 100.9W 986 MB AT 2100 UTC JUN 
14 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE 
QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N 
OF 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 17.3N 102.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 
15N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOS NEAR 18.3N 104.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
REMAINDER AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INLAND NEAR 20.2N 
105.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INLAND NEAR 22.4N 
105.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INLAND NEAR 24.5N 
106.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF 02N BETWEEN 123W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 
FT IN SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL. 

.N OF 28N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 
FT IN N SWELL. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S BETWEEN 95W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S BETWEEN 95W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL.  

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC SUN JUN 14...

.TROPICAL STORM CARLOS...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 
NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 7.5N E OF 91W.
 
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N103W TO 07N112W. ITCZ FROM 
07N112W TO 05N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 121W. 

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.