000
FZPN03 KNHC 020247
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0430 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN NOV 02.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON NOV 03.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE NOV 04.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 10.2N 105.4W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC NOV 
02 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 
100W AND 105W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 
105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 12.6N 109.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 120 NM SE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH 
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 16.0N 110.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 18.8N 109.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 21.0N 
108.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 22.0N 
108.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 
13N97W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 
40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N100W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 
94W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN 
NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 14N96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N100W NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 14N96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
NE AND SW SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N114W TO 23N122W THEN DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
TO 21N128W. FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 30N120W 
TO 20N130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 11N TO 23N W OF 122W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 29N115N TO 20N120W TO 10N128W 
EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 22N W OF 120W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 
10N TO 24N W OF 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. 

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST 09N TO 11N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11.5N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0215 UTC SUN NOV 02...

.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
AROUND 90 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N91W TO 
09N102W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
11N123W TO 09N130W. ITCZ FROM 09N130W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.