000
FZPN03 KNHC 012121
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2230 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT NOV 01.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN NOV 02.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON NOV 03.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 10.1N 104.4W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC NOV 
01 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W E TO SE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 12.0N 108.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W E TO 
SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 15.2N 111.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 08 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 18.7N 109.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 21.5N 
108.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 22.0N 
108.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 
13N98W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 
40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N100W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
94W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N100W NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N118W TO 21N130W THEN DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
TO 21N140W. FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE 30N120W TO 
20N130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 11N TO 23N W OF 125W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 29N115N TO 20N125W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 22N W OF 122W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF 
LINE FROM 26N113W TO 20N115W TO 09N128W...EXCEPT N OF 24N W OF 
130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 9N TO 11N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 9N TO 11N E OF 100W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC SAT NOV 01...

.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 
NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N90W TO 
10N98W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
11N124W TO 10N130W. ITCZ FROM 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W AND NEAR 
07N129W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.