000
FZPN03 KNHC 312125
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2230 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 9.5N 101.4W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
31 MOVING WSW OR 250 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 9.6N 104.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 11.7N 108.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 16.0N 110.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR 
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 19.8N 108.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE INLAND NEAR 23.5N 
106.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 
13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 14N96.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N98W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N97W TO 
12.5N100W TO 12.5N102W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT E TO 
SE WINDS W OF 100W. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 14N96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W TO 
12.5N100W TO 13N104W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT E TO SE 
WINDS W OF 100W. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER AREA 
FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW OF LINE FROM 30N131W TO 
24N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N121W TO 23N130W 
TO 21N140W. FROM 14N TO 24N W OF 132W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 24N132W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 12N TO 24N W OF 
130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND 
NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 30N120W TO 24N130W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF 
A LINE 29N115W TO 20N123W TO 12N125W WINDS 20 OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT IN NW SWELL.

.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC FRI OCT 31...

.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM W OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG E 
OF CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN A BAND WITHIN 90 NM SW OF A LINE 
FROM 07N102W TO 08N105W TO 10N107W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N98W...THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. 
VANCE FROM 09N105W TO 08N110W TO 11N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 06N E OF 83W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 91W AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 
123W.
.
$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.