000
FZPN03 KNHC 311555
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT NOV 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN NOV 02.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 10.1N 100.8W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 
31 MOVING S-SW OR 195 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 
NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45 NM NW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 9.6N 103.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT 
AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 11.4N 107.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 111W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 15.0N 109.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 19.3N 107.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE NEAR 23.5N 105.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 14N95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 12.5N96.5W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 12N100W NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 15N95W TO 13.5N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO 
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12.5N98W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER AREA 
FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. 

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.COLD FRONT 30N128W TO 25N140W. W OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 30N119W TO 23N132W. NW 
OF A LINE 30N124W TO 15N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 
132W WINDS NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE 30N116W TO 10N140W WINDS 
20 OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31...

.TROPICAL STORM VANCE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N83W TO 10N94W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N108W 
TO 12N125W TO 12N131W. ITCZ FROM 12N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W AND WITHIN 60 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 123W.
.
$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.