000
FZPN03 KNHC 040933
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1030 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 06.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.5N 112.7W 981 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 04
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...45 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 
75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NE 
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.4N 116.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 90 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 
120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 123W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 23.3N 117.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE 
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N 
TO 28N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 24.4N 117.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 25.2N 117.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIMON NEAR 26.3N
116.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.
 
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

.S OF 02S E OF 85W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.46 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT OCT 04...

.HURRICANE SIMON...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 45 NM SE SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W THEN ITCZ TO 14N102W. 
MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13N116W TO 13N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.