000
FZPN03 KNHC 180939
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1030 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU SEP 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI SEP 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 20.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.7N 105.0W 988 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 18 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 240 NM SE  
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 18.2N 106.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE...120 NM SE...90 NM SW AND 120 NM NW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 11N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 19.6N 108.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE AND 90 NM SW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 180 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 14N TO 23.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 21.0N 111.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR 
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.0N 113.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.5N 115.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N126W TO 23N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N121W TO 
23N140W. N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0915 UTC THU SEP 18...

.HURRICANE POLO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM N AND 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
150 NM NE...180 NM SE...270 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS.
 
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N88W TO 12N92W...WHERE 
IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 
13N107W TO 11.5N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 10N127W TO 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. 

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.