000
FZPN03 KNHC 210247
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0430 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT AUG 23.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.9N 136.4W 998 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 
21 MOVING IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 
NM SE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER 
WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO   
9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.5N 135.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 130W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.3N 134.1W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 300 NM 
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.3N 131.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.                   
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 21.4N 
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 27.0N 
129.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 19.6N 121.6W 988 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 
21 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE 
QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...300 NM NE QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N 
TO 26N BETWEEN 111W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.0N 122.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WITH 
SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 420 NM 
SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.2N 125.4W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA BOUNDED BY 
A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 08N130W TO 08N112W TO 20N112W TO 30N120W 
TO 30N130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX 
OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 25.0N 128.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.                 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 26.5N 
130.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.0N 
133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 93W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
14N103W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 104W 
AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL.

.S OF 02S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED 
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0215 UTC THU AUG 21...

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 14N137W TO 11N140W. 

.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL....NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SE AND 300 NM SW QUADRANTS.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W 1007 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES           
NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO 06N103W TO 10N115W. NO ITCZ AXIS E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN    
82W AND 86W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 
93W...WITHIN 180 NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 107W.
 
$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.