000
FZPN03 KNHC 141458
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING... 
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 115.9W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
14 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM NE...30 NM SE...60 NM SW...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH 
SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 90 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.4N 117.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 40 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 12 
FT SEAS WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN ELSEWHERE AND 
REMAINDER OF AREA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.6N 119.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE...45 NM SE...90 
NM SW... AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN  150 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 330 NM NE 
AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS...AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.1N 124.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE...75 NM 
SE...120 NM SW... AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 
270 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A 
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.2N 128.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.                        
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.9N 131.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.8N 133.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N140W 1007 MB STATIONARY. WITHIN 180 NM SE 
QUADRANT OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
NE...SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N140W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210 NM N QUADRANT 
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N144W 1005 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 11N89W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. FROM 08N TO 
10N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 13N129W 
TO 08N127W TO 12N114W TO 16N116W TO 13N129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC THU AUG 14...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 45 NM NE...120 NM SE...210 NM SW...AND 120 NM NW 
QUADRANTS OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N104W TO 08N105W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG N OF 11N WITHIN 270 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 
93W...N OF 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A 
LINE FROM 18N106W TO 20N110W TO 05N110W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N92W TO 12N103W THEN RESUMES FROM 
13N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 05N96W TO 
09N103W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...WITHIN 90-150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS W OF 136W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.