000
FZPN03 KNHC 131440
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC WED AUG 13 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.2N 111.0W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
13 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 30 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.5N 115.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 
NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
120 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.8N 120.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 90 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 300 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.3N 124.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.5N 128.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.5N 131.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N138W 1008 MB MOVING W 8 KT. FROM 12N TO 16N W 
OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE...SE AND 
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N140W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 270 
NM SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED NE...SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA NEAR 12.5N142W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 270 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A 
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S105W TO 00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
8 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC WED AUG 13...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 12N101W TO 
19N110W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N138W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM NW 
QUADRANT OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 16N108W THEN RESUMES FROM   
14N115W TO 11N127W TO 12N133W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N138W TO 
11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...N OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W... 
WITHIN 270 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 09N111W...FROM 08N  
TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 119W...AND WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF A LINE 
FROM 10N121W TO 12N131W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.