000
FZPN03 KNHC 022206
HSFEP2

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC FRI MAY 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO START BY SUNSET SAT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
END AROUND SUNRISE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO ON SATURDAY...INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING GALE CONDITIONS TO 
PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N91W TO 1008 MB...THEN TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N100W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N110W BEFORE 
TRANSITIONING TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N123W. ITCZ CONTINUES WEST FROM 
06N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                       

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG ROUGHLY 115W FROM 
08N TO 14N...NEAR THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF A 65 KT 
WESTERLY UPPER JET. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
07N110W THAT HAS BEEN PULSATING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. 

JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ALSO SUPPORTING SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION FORM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...AIDED IN PART 
BY CONVERGENCE OF GAP WIND FLOW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

ELSEWHERE WEST OF 120W...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 25N REMAINS 
FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME...ALLOWING ONLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND 
FLOW. ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 
6 FT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING 
THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N110W 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN