000 FZPN03 KNHC 110937 HSFEP2 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI APR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 06N115W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REPORTED STRONG GAP WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING AROUND 05 UTC. THE LINGERING STRONG WINDS ARE DUE IN PART TO LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS...AS WELL AS A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...AND ONLY MODERATE GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FARTHER SOUTH...A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 02 UTC INDICATED GAP WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS HAS PROBABLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE DUE TO OVERNIGHT LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AND MON DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES OF STRONG GAP FLOW SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. A PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE AND E SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT GENERATED FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP EVENTS REACHES AS FAR WEST AS 115W...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY AND NW SWELL. THIS PLUME WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE FLOW TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF 03N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 105W. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE GAP WIND FLOW...BUT ALSO UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN SHARP UPPER TROUGH NE OF AREA EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 00N110W. A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N135W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...REACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE SAT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W...WILL DECOUPLE FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SAT...AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 22N135W. THE LOW PRES IS BREAKING UP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THUS KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ONLY 10 TO 15 FT FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL CHANGE SAT INTO SUN AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DAMPEN OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FROM 30N135W TO 13N108W. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 130W SAT THROUGH MON. $$ CHRISTENSEN