000
FZPN03 KNHC 211451
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON OCT 21 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W. 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 16.3N 102.2W 954 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 21 
MOVING IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...50 NM 
SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 31 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33 
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 16.5N 102.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33 
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 16.4N 102.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33 
KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 16.0N 104.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 15.5N 107.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAYMOND NEAR 15.5N 110.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.W OF LINE FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN NW SWELL.   
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.   
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC MON OCT 21...

HURRICANE RAYMOND NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 
NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE N OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 11N90W TO 14N97W THEN RESUMES FROM
14N105W 12N107W TO 09N120W TO 09N124W. ITCZ IS FROM 09N124W TO 
10N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 4N E 
OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 124W. 

$$
.FORECASTER FORMOSA.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.