000
FZPN03 KNHC 181532
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1630 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W. 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 20.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM MANUEL NEAR 23.4N 107.8W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 
18 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MANUEL NEAR 24.3N 108.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW 
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 60 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 45 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 8 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MANUEL NEAR 24.5N 109.1W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 45 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MANUEL NEAR 24.3N 109.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MANUEL NEAR 24.0N 
110.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...NO MORE TCM FCST INFO ==> VERIFY WITH TCM.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT 
IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 124 WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC WED SEP 18...

.TROPICAL STORM MANUEL...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 110 
NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 
99W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 15N105W TO 11N125W TO 10N135W. ITCZ 10N135W 
TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.