000
FZPN03 KNHC 151620
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W. 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 15.                              
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 16.                    
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 17.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM MANUEL MOVING INLAND NEAR 18.5N 103.8W 985 MB AT 
1500 UTC SEP 15 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NE 
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM NE...120 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT AND W SEMICIRCLE...AND 120 NM SE 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16.5N104W TO 16N100W TO 10N108W TO 
12N111W TO 16.5N104W SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. 
REMAINDER AREA FROM 09N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 97W AND A LINE FROM 
16.5N104W TO 14N109W TO 09N114W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MANUEL JUST INLAND 
NEAR 19.5N 104.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE 
QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.  
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 18.5N104W TO 15N96W 
TO 11.5N102W TO 10N107W TO 13N104W TO 18.5N104W W WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL JUST INLAND NEAR 
20.3N 105.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 18N104W TO 15N95W TO 08N111W TO 
16N109W TO 18N104W SW WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW 
SWELL...HIGHEST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MANUEL NEAR 21.2N 
106.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. WITHIN AREA 
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 18N106W TO 16N96W TO 10N110W TO 18N106W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST...MANUEL DISSIPATED. WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 16N99W TO 14N100W TO 10N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL...HIGHEST N OF 14N BETWEEN 96W AND
98W.
 
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1600 UTC SUN SEP 15...

.TROPICAL STORM MANUEL...NUMEROUS STRONG STRONG WITHIN 120 NM IN 
THE SE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
SE QUADRANT...420 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT...60 NM IN THE NW 
QUADRANT AND 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N91W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 14N111W TO 09N120W TO 08N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.
 
$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.