000
FZPN03 KNHC 051501
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1630 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W. 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 15.8N 102.1W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 
05 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 15 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE 
AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 17.2N 104.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN 30 
NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 19.1N 107.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE AND 50 NM SW 
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN 60 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 21.0N 111.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF ERICK NEAR 22.5N 
115.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF ERICK NEAR 23.0N 
119.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
 
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA AT 17.1N 111.7W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR CENTER. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 
NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DALILA NEAR 17.1N 
113.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR 
CENTER. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 30 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DALILA NEAR 16.9N 
114.1W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 13N97W TO 00N80W TO 00N95W
TO 10N110W TO 13N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY
IN MIXED S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT
PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC FRI JUL 04...

.TROPICAL STORM ERICK...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 120
NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 19N112W TO 16N112W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 15N90W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N113W TO 
09N134W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N134W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM OF LINE FROM 06N77W TO 08N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 08N114W TO 09N126W.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.