000
FZPN03 KNHC 160936
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1030 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU MAY 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI MAY 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT MAY 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 9.1N 106.9W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC MAY 
16 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 10.2N 109.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE...50 NM SE...30 NM SW AND 70 NM NW 
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE...150 NM 
SE...150 NM NW AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SE AND 120 NM SW 
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 11.6N 112.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE...70 NM SE...50 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE AND 
120 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SW AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 
119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.8N 115.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 14.0N 117.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN NEAR 14.5N 118.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 80W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC THU MAY 16... 
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM 
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E AND 120 
NM W SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH 07N77W TO 09N88W TO 07N101W RESUMES FROM 08N110W 
TO 06N131W...THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 133W.

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.