000
FZPN03 KNHC 160244
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0430 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU MAY 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI MAY 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT MAY 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 9.0N 105.9W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC MAY 
16 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE 
AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 10.2N 109.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS...AND 90 NM SW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF 
ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 10.9N 110.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 11.6N 111.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM SW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT 
OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA S 
OF 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 13.0N 114.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 14.7N 116.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 16.0N 117.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W 1007 MB. WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 07N79W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 08N79W 1007 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LOW...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 
9 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES N OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC THU MAY 16... 
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF ALVIN.

.LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W 1007 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 03N E OF 
80W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W 1007 MB 
TO 09N86W TO 08N101W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N109W TO 08N120W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 08N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
ITCZ W OF 127W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.