000
FZPN03 KNHC 152129
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2230 UTC WED MAY 15 2013
 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED MAY 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU MAY 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI MAY 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 8.7N 105.1W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC MAY 
15 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 30 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 10.0N 108.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT... 
AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 11.1N 111.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF 
ALVIN WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NE 
QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF ALVIN 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ALVIN NEAR 12.5N 114.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 14.0N 116.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 15.5N 117.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA... 
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LOW...EXCEPT 0 NM NE QUADRANT...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA... 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 08N80W 1006 MB. WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LOW...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES N OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC WED MAY 15... 
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 
NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF ALVIN. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 83W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
E OF 86W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N79W 1009 MB 
TO 08N87W TO 07N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N108W TO 09N120W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 09N120W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 133W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.