000
FZPN03 KNHC 161515
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 23.8N 112.2W 970 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...270 
NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL INLAND NEAR 27.0N 112.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL OVER WATER NEAR 28.5N 
114.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL OVER WATER NEAR 29.5N 
116.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 11 
FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 31.3N
121.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 300 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W SW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 29N E OF 
116W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF 
PAUL WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

.FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1430 UTC MON OCT 15...

.HURRICANE PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 
25N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 11N10OW TO 13N104W RESUMES S OF 
PAUL FROM 15N115W TO 08N128W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N128W TO 09N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 
110W AND 113W AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.   

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.