000
FZPN03 KNHC 151528 RRA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 17.3N 114.7W 979 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 15
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...270
NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 21.6N 113.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...330 
NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 26.0N 114.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE 
QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 17 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL NEAR 28.4N 116.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 390 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W SW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
115W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 330 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM NW 
AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 
108W AND 115W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE FROM 30N122W TO 18N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1530 UTC MON OCT 15...

.HURRICANE PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 
19N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 12N105W RESUMES SW OF 
PAUL FROM 12N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF TROUGH E OF 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 120W. 

$$
.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.