000
FZPN03 KNHC 150945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 16.2N 114.9W 988 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 15
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE...70 NM SE... 
50 NM SW AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 135
NM N SEMICIRCLE...160 NM SE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 22 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 20.2N 113.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 24.8N 113.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NE...70 NM SE...50 NM SW AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL NEAR 27.5N 116.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM NW 
AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
N OF 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N127W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N W OF 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC MON OCT 15...

.T.S. PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 10N101W TO 13N105W RESUMES SW OF 
PAUL FROM 13N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF TROUGH E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH 
W OF 120W. 

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.