000
FZPN03 KNHC 150253
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 15.8N 115.3W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 15 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 19.6N 114.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 24.2N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM NW AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 27.0N 117.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.5N
122.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W S TO SW WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 330 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 NM NW 
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO 20N135W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC MON OCT 15...

.T.S. PAUL...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 114 
AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 
115W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 09N95W TO 12N102W THEN  
RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL FROM 13N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 120W. 

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.