000
FZPN03 KNHC 142119
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 15.4N 115.2W 999 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 14 
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 18.4N 115.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 23.2N 114.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 26.5N 115.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.5N
119.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W S TO SW WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 123W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 NM NW 
AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL. FROM 
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N W OF 125 WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.

.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2030 UTC SUN OCT 14...

.T.S. PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 114 AND 118W. BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N96W TO 11N101W THEN  
RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W AND 
BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF TROUGH W OF 120W. 

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.