000
FZPN03 KNHC 140245
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 14.2N 114.1W 1001 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 
14 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 15.8N 115.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 19.9N 114.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 24.6N 114.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL OVER LAND NEAR 27.5N
114.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.0N
116.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W S TO 
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 
NM NW QUADRANT AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W S TO 
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W S 
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

.FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL.

.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N 
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W N TO NE WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC SAT OCT 13...

.T.S. PAUL NEAR 14.1N 113.6W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED IN A BAND TO THE W OF CENTER AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 16N114W TO 14.5N115W TO 13.5N114.5W AND WITHIN 30 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N93W TO 10N98W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N116W TO 
11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG N OF TROUGH TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12.5N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.