000
FZPN03 KNHC 070945
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN OCT 07 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 09.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA NEAR 14.4N 120.9W 998 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 
07 MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE 
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...30 
NM SE QUADRANT AND 15 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE OLIVIA NEAR 16.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...
90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA NEAR 17.0N 122.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 
120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA NEAR 16.5N 123.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA NEAR 16.0N 125.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OLIVIA NEAR 15.5N 
128.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
 
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN OLIVIA WARNING...WITHIN 270 NM N AND 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED OLIVIA WARNING...WITHIN 300 NM 
NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED OLIVIA WARNING...WITHIN 350 NM 
NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT.

.N OF 27N E OF 118W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W 
TO 14N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W 
TO 14N96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0930 UTC SUN OCT 07...

.TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
CENTER. BROKEN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ARE DEFINED
BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
10N122W TO 09N126W...WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 15N121W 16N120W
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 14N117W TO 11N119W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N99W TO 11N111W WHERE IT 
ENDS. IT RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA AT 11N124W TO 
08N134W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH W OF 124W.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.