000
FZPN03 KNHC 152303 CCA
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

...CORRECTED TO ELIMINATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA...

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUL 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FABIO AT 17.4N 118.2W 974 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 85 GUSTS 
105 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 110 NM N SEMICIRCLE... 
100 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 220 NM NE QUADRANT...165 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 19.0N 120.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WIND WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREAS OF STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 21.5N 121.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 45 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER IN AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 24.4N 
121.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 26.0N 
121.0W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK SIZE AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM OF FABIO  WINDS TO 
33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM 
OF FABIO  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 NM 
OF FABIO  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA AT 15.4N 139.5W 1005 MB AT 
2100 UTC JUL 15 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 16 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 25 GUSTS 30 KT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 45 
NM S SEMICIRCLES  WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.4N 
143.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 20 GUSTS 30 KT.  OVER FORECAST 
WATERS  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.30 HOUR FORECAST  N OF 29N FROM 125W TO 135W  WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS.  SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  N OF 24N W OF 126W  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  
SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15...

.HURRICANE FABIO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 08N78W TO 10N92W TO 08N110W. ITCZ 11N120W TO 
06N129W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.