000
FZPN03 KNHC 151540
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.9N 117.4W 972 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT 
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...100 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 225 NM NE...150 NM SE...100 NM SW AND 165 
NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 18.3N 120.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE...135 NM SE...90 NM SW AND 150 NM NW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 20.6N 121.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS 
TO 22 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 23.3N 
121.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 25.2N 
121.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 26.0N 
121.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK SIZE AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM OF FABIO WINDS TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 NM OF 
FABIO WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 NM OF 
FABIO WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA NEAR 15.6N 138.2W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC
JUL 15 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 45 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.4N 
143.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15...

.HURRICANE FABIO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 08N78W TO 10N92W TO 08N110W. ITCZ 11N120W TO 
06N129W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.