000
FZPN03 KNHC 140911
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.0N 113.4W 982 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 14
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS...240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 28 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.6N 116.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE 
QUADRANT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 12 FT SEAS OR MAX SEAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 17.7N 119.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
150 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 19.6N 120.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 22.0N
121.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FABIO NEAR 24.0N
121.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.5N 130.0W 998 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL
14 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.6N 135.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.5N 
140.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.5N
147.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.0N
153.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EMILIA NEAR 15.0N
158.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK SIZE AND 
INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FABIO WARNING...WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
420 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN S 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FABIO WARNING...WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EXCEPT 360 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FABIO WARNING...WITHIN 180 
NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN EMILIA WARNING...WITHIN 210 NM NE 
QUADRANT...120 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN EMILIA WARNING...WITHIN 330 
NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN EMILIA WARNING...FROM 16N 
TO 23N W OF 137W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
NE SWELL. FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 139W SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN NE SWELL.

.N OF 26N W OF 134W AND N OF 19N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W NE WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 135W NE TO E 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 129W N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0730 UTC SAT JUL 14...

.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
CENTER.

.HURRICANE FABIO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE.

.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 
96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N92W TO 08N103W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N123W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 
NM S OF AXIS AND N OF AXIS TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W 
AND 85W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.