000
FZPN03 KNHC 151602
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN AT 16.5N 106.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 15 
MOVING S OR 185 DEG AT 6 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 45 
KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 14.9N 107.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 109.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 
110.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 
111.0W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 25 GUSTS 35 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 60 NM S AND 30 NM N 
OF CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 13N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W  W TO NW WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.  REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N FROM 
100W TO 132W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW 
AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 30 
NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES  WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W  SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.  REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N 
FROM 105W TO 128W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM SE QUADRANT  WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 119W  SW 
TO W WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  S OF 06N FROM 119W TO 128W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL

.FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 102W  SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS 9 
TO 11 FT.  N OF 12N E OF 96W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST  FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 105W  SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT.  SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.  N OF 13N E OF 96W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST  FROM 06N TO 13N E OF 105  SW TO W WINDS 20 
KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  N OF 13N E OF 96W... INCLUDING GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT.  ELSEWHERE 

.LOW PRES N OF AREA AT 33N139W 1006 MOVING SE 10 KT MB WITH COLD 
FRONT TO 30N134W TO 22N140W.  NW OF FRONT  NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES NEAR 30N135W 1005 MB WITH WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT TO 30N130W TO 19N140W.  N OF 26N W OF FRONT  W TO NW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS 10 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL.  ELSEWHERE W 
OF FRONT  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES NEAR 31N136W 1008 MB WITH 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 30N130W TO 18N140W.  N OF 16N W OF 
130W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT OCT 15...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 13N95W OVER FAR S MEXICO 
NEAR 18N101W TO 18N105W THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N110W TO 09N130W 
TO 11N140W.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 119W TO 123W. 
 
$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.