000
FZPN03 KNHC 150941
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 17.2N 106.6W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
15 MOVING S OR 185 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.3N 107.4W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 109.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 
110.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 
110.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 112W W TO NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 132W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW 
AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 
NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 128W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 75 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 119W SW TO 
W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 06N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N94W...
INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 07N E OF 95W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. FROM 03N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 90W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 12N94W..INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 105W SW 
TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE E 
OF 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
12N92W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 92W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN
92W AND 105W W TO NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
ELSEWHERE N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.LOW N OF AREA NEAR 34N139W 1008 MB WITH COLD FRONT FROM LOW TO
30N136W TO 24N140W. NW OF FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 30N133W TO 21N140W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR N OF AREA NEAR 31N137W 1005 MB WITH 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N133W TO 21N140W. N OF
26N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN NW 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 30N133W TO 21N140W WINDS LESS
THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N136W 1008 MB WITH 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N131W TO 20N138W. W OF 
LINE FROM 30N135W TO 16N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN NW TO N SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0845 UTC SAT OCT 15...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SE 
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 
15N89W TO 15N97W TO 17N103W WHERE IT ENDS. IT THEN RESUMES SW OF 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FROM 15N111W TO 12N121W TO 14N131W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
FROM 08N107W TO 08N112W...AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 
123W.
 
$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.