000 FZPN03 KNHC 150344 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0430 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. SECURITE E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SAT OCT 15. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 16. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 17. .WARNINGS. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 17.7N 106.4W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 15 MOVING SSE OR 165 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE...65 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.6N 107.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE...35 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 14.5N 108.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 110.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 110.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 14.5N 110.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W W TO NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 132W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 210 NM W AND 90 NM E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 128W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL .WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N94W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 07N E OF 95W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT WITH SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N94W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N E OF 105W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE E OF 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N92W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN E OF 105W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .COLD FRONT FROM 30N136 TO 25N140W. NW OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. .12 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N138W 1006 MB WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST N OF AREA NEAR 30.5N137W 1005 MB WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N132W TO 20N138W. NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA NEAR 31N136W 1007 MB WITH DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N130W TO 26N131W. NW OF FRONT AND W OF LINE FROM 26N131W TO 20N134W TO 17N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 0245 UTC SAT OCT 15... .TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN. A SMALL CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRES OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W TO 16N103W WHERE IT ENDS. IT THEN RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FROM 15N111W TO 12N123W TO 14N130W TO 11N140W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 11OW. $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.