000
FZPN03 KNHC 142114
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 18.0N 106.9W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
14 MOVING S OR 180 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...65 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
0 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.0N 107.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 108.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 109.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 15.0N
110.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 60 NM 
NE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W W TO NW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA S 
OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 132W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180
NM SW AND 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W W TO NW 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 128W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 
NM SW AND 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N123W 1010 MB. WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS MERGED. 

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N94W INCLUDING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 07N E OF 95W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 
14 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 90W 
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT WITH SW SWELL. REMAINDER 
OF AREA E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W 
TO 12N94W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 105W SW TO 
W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE E OF 
105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14N93W INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 9 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 105W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 
05N BETWEEN 80W AND 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 
132W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA NEAR 31N138W 1006 MB WITH 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. NW OF FRONT W TO 
NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 
110W AND 117W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW N OF AREA NEAR 31N136W 1008 MB WITH 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N130W TO 25N131W TO 18N140W. NW OF 
FRONT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2015 UTC FRI OCT 14...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRES OVER GUATEMALA 
NEAR 16N89W TO 14N100W WHERE IT ENDS. IT THEN RESUMES WELL TO 
THE SW OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
12N123W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG N OF 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.