000
FZPN03 KNHC 140333
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC FRI OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 19.2N 106.6W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 
14 MOVING IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...150 
NM SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 18.0N 106.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 14 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.8N 107.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS 
TO 14 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 109.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 109.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM S AND 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W W TO NW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA S 
OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. FROM 20N TO 23N E OF 110W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 
NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W W TO NW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 132W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 
NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W W TO NW WINDS 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 10N127W. S OF 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W S 
TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N124W. FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 126W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 13N118W. FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN BETWEEN 115W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.

.N OF 08N E OF 100W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT 
IN SW SWELL. S OF 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 
TO 10 FT IN SSW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA BETWEEN 81 AND 100W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 05N E OF 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL. S OF 05N E OF 100W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 05N E OF 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN SW SWELL. S OF 05N E OF 100W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 
11 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 136W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. NW OF 
FRONT NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 20N BETWEEN 
110W AND 134W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. NW OF 
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES N OF AREA NEAR 34N137W 1007 MB. N OF 
28N W OF 136W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT IN NW 
SWELL. N OF 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES N OF AREA NEAR 31N136W. N OF 27N W OF 
134W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT IN NW SWELL. 
ELSEWHERE W OF LINE 30N134W TO 24N135W TO 21N140W WIND LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 
116W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC FRI OCT 14...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 
105W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE 
MEXICO THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FROM 12N110W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N127W TO 08N140W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. SOUTH OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 
83W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.