000 FZPN03 KNHC 110316 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0430 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. PAN PAN E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 11. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 12. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 13. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 17.4N 106.0W 960 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 11 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 19.1N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 330 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. .36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 20.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 21.8N 105.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA INLAND NEAR 23.5N 105.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST...JOVA DISSIPATED. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 116.3W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 11 MOVING E OR 085 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...45 NM NW QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT...HIGHEST NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.1N 113.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN S TO SW SWELL. S OF 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 16.5N 108.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN SW SWELL...HIGHEST N CENTRAL PORTION. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. S OF 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 17.4N 105.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 16.5N 103.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 16.0N 103.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW TO W SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. .FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. .12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .LOW PRES NEAR 12N94.5W 1006 MB DRIFTING N. FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. N OF 12N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12.5N95W 1006 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL. N OF 12.5N E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. S OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N95W 1005 MB. WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN S TO SW SWELL. .12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 30N NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 0230 UTC TUE OCT 11... .HURRICANE JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75-90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. .TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 60-120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60-75 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. .SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-90 EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N82W TO 11N92W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N91W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N94.5W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATIONS OF HURRICANE JOVA AND TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13N118W TO 10N125W TO 08N139W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N139W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W AND SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.