000
FZPN03 KNHC 102136
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON OCT 10 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 12.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.8N 106.2W 955 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 10 
MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT 
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 18.2N 105.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 85 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 
NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 21.1N 104.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 75 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 
120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 22.7N 104.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOVA INLAND NEAR 
24.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...JOVA DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 14.9N 116.9W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
10 MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE 
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SW 
QUADRANTS...45 NM NW QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 14.9N 114.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 90 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 16.1N 109.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 60 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 13 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 17.3N 106.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 17.0N 104.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 16.5N 103.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 
NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT OF 
CENTER OF JOVA...AND WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 100W AND 122W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 300 
NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN EXCEPT 180 NM SE QUADRANT 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT 
IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 
120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL. S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN EXCEPT 180 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW 
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 08N AND SE OF A LINE FROM 23N106W 
TO 08N130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW 
AND NW SWELL. S OF 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W N TO NE WINDS 
TO 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 
26N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N W OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N TO 21N W OF 122W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N94.5W 1006 MB DRIFTING N. WITHIN 120 NM NW 
QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 12N E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 
100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N95W 1006 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W 
SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 12N E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N93W 1005 MB. WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 
86W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW 
SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 26N NW TO N 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 29N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC MON OCT 10...
.HURRICANE JOVA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 
NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60-90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 13N88W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N94.5W 
WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION 
AROUND HURRICANE JOVA AND HURRICANE IRWIN...THEN RESUMES FROM 
13N120W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NE OF A LINE FROM 11N90W TO 05N80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.