000
FZPN03 KNHC 101535
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON OCT 10 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 12.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.3N 106.8W 957 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE 
QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...300 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM 
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 17.3N 105.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 85 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT...90 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 
TO 38 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA INLAND NEAR 20.1N 104.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 75 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 22.0N 104.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JOVA NEAR 24.5N 
105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 117.7W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
10 MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 114.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...60 NM NW QUADRANT AND 
70 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE 
QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM 
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.6N 110.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.9N 107.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 17.1N 105.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.4N 103.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 210 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF IRWIN AND 300 NM OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 
125W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF IRWIN AND OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 270 NM OF JOVA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W S TO SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW AND W SWELL. S OF 04N BETWEEN 
100W AND 135W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND 
SW SWELL. FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM NW 
AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N94W 1006 MB DRIFTING NW. WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO 
11N BETWEEN 82W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N96W 1006 MB. WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 83W AND 95W 
SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N93W 1005 MB. WITHIN 75 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 
90W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW 
SWELL. REMAINDER AREA FROM 05N TO 22N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W SW 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. 

.FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 26N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W N TO NE WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W N TO NE WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE 30N130W TO 23N140W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1445 UTC MON OCT 10...
.HURRICANE JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W.

.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S 
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 13N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N94W TO 11N95W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE 
CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE JOVA AND HURRICANE IRWIN. MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N123W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS AND 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. 

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.