000
FZPN03 KNHC 082125
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 10.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 14.4N 120.9W 993 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
08 MOVING NE OR 360 DEG AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
210 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.9N 119.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.2N 116.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 114.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.0N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 19.0N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.0N 110.2W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 08 
MOVING ENE OR 075 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.1N 108.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE...210 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 17.4N 105.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...70 NM NW QUADRANT AND 135 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE 
AND SW QUADRANT OVER FORECAST WATERS...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 27 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 18.4N 105.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA INLAND NEAR 22.0N
104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
07N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 15N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
05N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 15N 
TO 23N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 05N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 150 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
07N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W TO 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 180 
NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W SW 
TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW 
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 17.5N TO 23N E OF 110W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

.FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT 
PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. N OF 22N W OF 116W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. FROM 20N TO 27N 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL. N OF 23N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1008 MB. FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 
100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N95W 1007 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 11N E OF 103W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12.5N94W 1006 MB. WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 11N E OF 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA 06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 26N TO 30N NW TO N 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 26N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 120-180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.

.HURRICANE JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 
18N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 09N84W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 11N97W TO 
12N101W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE 
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM IRWIN AND HURRICANE JOVA. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO 08N136W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N E OF 85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.