000 FZPN03 KNHC 081604 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1630 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. PAN PAN E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 08. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 09. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 10. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.3N 121.0W 986 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 08 MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.8N 120.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.1N 118.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 114.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.0N 110.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 19.0N 107.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM JOVA NEAR 15.8N 110.4W 993 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 08 MOVING NE OR 045 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.1N 108.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 105 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.5N 106.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 105 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...70 NM NW QUADRANT AND 135 NM SE QUADRANT. WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 18.3N 105.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA INLAND NEAR 21.5N 104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN AND JOVA WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN AND JOVA WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IRWIN AND JOVA WARNINGS...WITHIN WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 180 NM OF N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SE SWELL. .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...FROM 18N TO 25N W OF 120W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF 115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL. .FROM 24N TO 28N E OF 115W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1008 MB STATIONARY. FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N95W 1007 MB. FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 105W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N94W 1006 MB. FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 105W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 1445 UTC SAT OCT 08... .HURRICANE IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. .TROPICAL STORM JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. .SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 85W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 12N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1008 MB TO 12N100W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 12N125W TO 08N132W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 87N AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.