000
FZPN03 KNHC 080935
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT OCT 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN OCT 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 10.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.4N 121.1W 980 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 08
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...90 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.1N 120.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.4N 118.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE...105 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 
120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.5N 116.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 16.0N 112.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 18.5N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM JOVA NEAR 15.9N 110.4W 996 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 08
MOVING N OR 05 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.5N 108.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 
210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.8N 106.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...75 NM NW QUADRANT AND 135 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 120 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 18.0N 105.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA INLAND NEAR 21.5N
104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN AND JOVA WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM OF 
CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM OF S 
SEMICIRCLE OF JOVA WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT EXCEPT 
N TO NE WINDS N OF 11N W OF 125W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX 
OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN AND JOVA 
WARNINGS...WITHIN WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 
240 NM OF CENTER OF JOVA EXCEPT 300 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 132W S 
TO SW WINDS 20 KT EXCEPT NE WINDS N OF 11N W OF 125W. SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IRWIN AND JOVA 
WARNINGS...WITHIN WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN AND WITHIN 
180 NM OF N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF JOVA WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 
103W AND 125W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT EXCEPT NE WINDS N OF 11N W OF 
120W. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 117W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY W TO NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...FROM 17N TO 
25N W OF 122W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY W 
TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT.

.WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 29N 
NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. N OF 29N 
BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 130W NW TO N WINDS 20 KT EXCEPT NE 
WINDS W OF 125W. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 14N 
W OF 110W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N W OF 111W AND FROM 
11N TO 24N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 
9 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 113W AND 
124W AND FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N96.5W 1008 MB STATIONARY. FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 97W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW 
SWELL. S OF 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N95W 1007 MB. WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 88W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N94W 1007 MB. WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W AND FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W SW TO W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW 
SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W N TO NE WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0745 UTC SAT OCT 08...
.HURRICANE IRWIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

.TROPICAL STORM JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM AND 75 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N96.5W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM 03N TO 09N.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N96.5W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO 08N137W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N137W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E 
OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N AND 75 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.