000
FZPN03 KNHC 072143
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 09.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.0N 120.9W 977 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 07 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT 
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...75 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 14.7N 121.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 
28 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 119.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 31 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.0N 117.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 15.5N 113.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRWIN NEAR 16.5N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM JOVA NEAR 14.6N 110.4W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 07 
MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 15.9N 110.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...75 NM NW QUADRANT AND 105 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE 
AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.9N 108.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...90 NM NW QUADRANT AND 135 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE 
AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 26 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 18.2N 106.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 20.5N 104.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...JOVA DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 390 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN A 
BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 300 
NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 390 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SE AND SW 
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W 
NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNING...WITHIN 300 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W S TO 
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 210 
NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 
115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN JOVA WARNING...WITHIN 210 
NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 390 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 
115W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 26N TO 30N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FROM 20N TO 27N W OF 120W NE 
TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. N 
OF 27N W OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN 
MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 19N TO 25N W OF 115W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. N OF 25N W OF 120W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW 
SWELL. FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 
FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX 
OF SWELL. FROM 20N TO 25N E OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N95W 1008 MB. S OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
10N97W 1007 MB. FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. N OF 06N BETWEEN 
97W AND 105W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
10N99W 1007 MB. FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 102W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07...
.HURRICANE IRWIN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE 
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

.TROPICAL STORM JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM 
NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180-210 NM SW SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N86W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N95W TO 
16N106W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE 
CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 13N124W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N130W TO 08N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF FIRST LOW AND FROM 
08N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 16N 
TO 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90-120 NM SW QUADRANT OF SECOND LOW.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.