000
FZPN03 KNHC 271605
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 27.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 28.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 29.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
HURRICANE HILARY AT 16.8N 116.4W 961 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 27 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 100 GUSTS 
120 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 105 NM NE QUADRANT... 
80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT.  
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 230 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE 
QUADRANT...160 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 200 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 29 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.9N 117.6W.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 85 GUSTS 105 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST  HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 20.2N 117.7W.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND 65 GUSTS 80 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN 
90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 23.0N 118.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 25.0N 
118.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 27.0N 
118.5W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 20 GUSTS 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 330 NM NE...120 NM SE...240 
NM SW AND 330 NM NW QUADRANTS OF CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  WITHIN 
360 NM NE...300 NM SE...270 NM SW AND 360 NM NW QUADRANTS  SEAS 
TO 12 FT.  FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W  N TO NE WINDS 
20 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 27N BETWEEN 106W 
AND 126W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  CONFUSED SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIX 
OF SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 240 NM NE 
AND SE...120 NM SW AND 210 NM NW QUADRANTS OF CENTER  WINDS TO 
33 KT.  WITHIN 300 NM NE AND SE...360 NM SW AND 390 NM NW 
QUADRANTS  SEAS TO 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW... 
FROM 09N TO 28N BETWEEN 109W AND 132W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  
CONFUSED SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 180 NM OF 
CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER  SEAS TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...FROM 11N TO 24N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 123W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  CONFUSED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIX 
OF SWELL.

.LOW PRES AT 10N129W 1009 MB.  WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 
NM ELSEWHERE  WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES NEAR 10N130W 1008 MB.  WITHIN 150 NM 
SE AND 60 NM ELSEWHERE  WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  FROM 
11N TO 18N W OF 134W  NE WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES NEAR 12N130W 1009 MB.  WITHIN 90 NM 
NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES  WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 122W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND SE SWELL.

.FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 25N WITHIN 150 NM OF W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NW TO N WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  N OF 27N FROM 121W TO 125W  N WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  CONDITIONS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED 
IMMEDIATELY BELOW. 

.WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N139W TO 29N140W.  WITHIN 120 NM 
SE OF FRONT  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS 9 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  FRONT DISSIPATED.  NW OF LINE 30N130W TO 
27N140W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  NEW COLD FRONT NW OF AREA.  EXCEPT AS NOTED 
WITH HILARY...N OF 20N FROM 119W TO 137W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC TUE SEP 27...
.HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER IN 
SQUALLS.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
120 NM OF CENTER.   

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 10N96W TO 13N104W... 
THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE HILARY FROM 14N119W TO LOW PRES AT 
10N129W 1009 MB TO 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW PRES AT 10N129W.
$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.