000
FZPN03 KNHC 260947
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON SEP 26 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 26.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE SEP 27.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED SEP 28.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.9N 112.2W 959 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 26
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 35 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.9N 114.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 
NM NE...60 NM SE...150 NM SW...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS 
TO 30 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.6N 116.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE...120 NM 
SE...180 NM SW AND 200 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.6N 116.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 22.6N 116.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW HILARY NEAR 25.5N
117.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...210 
NM SW AND 270 NM NW QUADRANTS OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W SW WINDS TO 20 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 
08N TO 24N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. CONFUSED 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 420 NM NW 
AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W SW WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N 
TO 27N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. CONFUSED 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 270 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 28N BETWEEN 107W AND 130W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. CONFUSED SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL. 
 
.FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 128W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FROM 04N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 110W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 124W S TO SW 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. 

.FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 122W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 124N NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
8 FT.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL.

.N OF 24N E OF 118W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W N TO 
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N E OF 121W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN PRIMARILY NW 
SWELL.      
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W N WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND SE SWELL. 

.STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING JUST NW OF AREA. NW OF LINE 30N138W 
TO 28N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 29N140W. 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT DISSIPATED. NW OF LINE 30N126W TO 
25N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W 1010 MB. WITHIN 120 NM 
NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0730 UTC MON SEP 26...

HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 150 NM S QUADRANTS.  

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 
10N86W TO 09N97W TO 09N104W WHERE IT TERMINATES...THEN RESUMES W 
OF HURRICANE HILARY FROM NEAR 13N119W TO 11N126W TO 10N135W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SIMILAR CONVECTION WAS N OF 
10N E OF 94W. 

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.