000
FZPN03 KNHC 251514
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN SEP 25 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 27.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.2N 109.2W 953 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 25
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND
75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.4N 112.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO  
33 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.9N 115.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N AND 150 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.3N 116.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 21.5N 115.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 24.5N 115.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 
NM NE AND 210 NM SE QUADRANTS OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED SEAS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 240 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM NE AND 210 NM SW QUADRANTS OF HILARY WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 
105W AND 118W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED 
SEAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 210 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 300 NM NW QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 420 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES.  

.FROM 24N TO 29N E OF 117W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 119W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N E OF 118W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 
25N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL.    
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N E OF 123W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
20N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 128W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL. 

.FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FROM 02N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S 
OF 04N BETWEEN 102W AND 124W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN 
MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 17N W OF 126N NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
8 FT. FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 93W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT. S OF 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 119W AND S OF 08N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 103W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW 
SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.  

.STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING JUST NW OF AREA. N OF 29N W OF 
138W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25...

HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E 
AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 90 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 11N90W TO 08N100W 
THEN RESUMES W OF HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 14N116W TO 12N130W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 84W AND 91W AND ELSEWHERE N OF 05N TO THE COAST OF 
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.

$$
.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.