000
FZPN03 KNHC 250307
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN SEP 25 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN SEP 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON SEP 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 27.

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.1N 107.7W 950 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 25 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT 
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.3N 110.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...75 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.5N 114.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.0N 116.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 20.0N 116.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 23.0N 116.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED SEAS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W 
AND 115W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED SEAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM NW QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 

.N OF 23N E OF 115W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE N OF 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W NW TO 
N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SW 
SWELL.    
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE N OF 16N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W NW TO 
N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW AND SW 
SWELL. 

.FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
8 FT. FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. S OF 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W  
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. S OF 13N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND 
SW SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 16N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.  

.COLD FRONT MEANDERING JUST NW OF AREA. N OF 29N W OF 135W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC SUN SEP 25...

HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM E 
AND 50 NM W OF CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 07N97W THEN 
RESUMES W OF HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 15N110W TO 13N125W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W 
AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.