000
FZPN03 KNHC 242103
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.9N 106.8W 951 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 24 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT 
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.1N 109.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...75 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 
NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 17.3N 113.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 105 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...90 
NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.0N 115.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.5N 116.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 22.0N 116.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 150 
NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
WITHIN 300 NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
180 NM W AND 225 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 360 NM E AND 270 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION...WITHIN 
180 NM...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT OF HILARY WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER.

.N OF 23N E OF 115W TO W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 23N E OF 120W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE N 
OF 20N E OF 125W...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN CONFUSED SWELL.   
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N E OF 122W TO W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 125W...EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN CONFUSED SWELL. 

.WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N95W TO 14N96W...INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 
8 FT. FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. S OF 14N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NW AND 
SW SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W SW TO W 
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.COLD FRONT MEANDERING JUST NW OF AREA. N OF 29N W OF 135W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2030 UTC SAT SEP 24...

HURRICANE HILARY...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 70 NM S OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN AND ENTERS 
EPAC WATERS NEAR 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 07N97W THEN RESUMES W OF 
HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 14N113W TO 12N125W TO 11N136W.  THE ITCZ 
AXIS IS W OF 11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 
90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.